Introduction: Codonoblepharon forsteri is a rare epiphytic moss characteristically associated with water-filled holes in trees. This study aims to review its range and population and assess effects of climate change.

Methods: An inventory of sites from where C. forsteri has been recorded was compiled. Extent of Occurrence (EOO) and Area of Occupancy (AOO) were calculated. Population size was estimated, using an occupied tree as an ‘individual-equivalent’ of the moss. Climatic conditions of its current distribution were characterised, and an ensemble model of its distribution generated. The latter was projected onto present and future climatic layers.

Results: C. forsteri has been recorded from 205 sites in 18 countries, in Europe, N Africa and SW Asia. It has been undergoing an overall decline. Most sites have few occupied trees, and a world population of 1000–10,000 individual-equivalents is estimated. Model projections suggest the species will experience a range increase of +0.27–0.78 by 2050 and +0.34–0.97 by 2070, especially in the NW, in particular across France and the UK. Range loss is predicted to be -0.16–0.23 in 2050 and -0.18–0.32 in 2070, affecting the driest areas of the current range around the Mediterranean, especially in N Africa.

Conclusions: C. forsteri has a relatively large EOO but a relatively small AOO, likely the product of its habitat specialism. A major reason for recent declines appears to be widespread abandonment of traditional ‘pollarding’ of trees. The potential climatic range of the species will shift significantly northwards over the next few decades