Observed climate change in northern high latitudes is strongest in winter, but still relatively little is known about the effects of winter climate change on tundra ecosystems. Ongoing changes in winter climate and snow cover will change the intensity, duration and frequency of frost events. Bryophytes form a major component of northern ecosystems but their responses to winter climate changes are largely unknown. Here, we studied how changes in overall winter climate and snow regime affect frost damage in three common bryophyte taxa that differ in desiccation tolerance in a subarctic tundra ecosystem. We used a snow manipulation experiment where bryophyte cores were transplanted from just above the tree line to similar elevation (i.e. current cold climate) and lower elevation (i.e. near-future warmer climate scenario) in Abisko, Sweden. Here, we measured frost damage in shoots of Ptilidium ciliare, Hylocomium splendens and Sphagnum fuscum with the relative electrolyte leakage (REL) method, during late winter and spring in two consecutive years. We hypothesized that frost damage would be lower in a milder climate (low site) and higher under reduced snow cover and that taxa from moister habitats with assumed low desiccation tolerance would be more sensitive to lower temperature and thinner snow cover than those from drier and more exposed habitats. Contrary to our expectations, frost damage was highest at low elevation, while the effect of snow treatment differed across sites and taxa. At the high site, frost damage was reduced under snow addition in the taxon with the assumed lowest desiccation tolerance, S. fuscum. Surprisingly, frost damage increased with mean temperature in the bryophyte core of the preceding 14 days leading up to REL measurements and decreased with higher frost degree sums, that is, was highest in the milder climate at the low site.

Synthesis: Our results imply that climate warming in late winter and spring increases frost damage in bryophytes. Given the high abundance of bryophytes in tundra ecosystems, higher frost damage could alter the appearance and functioning of the tundra landscape, although the short and long-term effects on bryophyte fitness remain to be studied.